Prediction markets, platforms that permit trading on the outcome of future events, have reached the proverbial Rubicon. Once viewed as niche informational tools or quasi‑academic experiments, these markets have expanded rapidly since the 2024 US elections into products attracting real capital, mainstream attention, and now, sustained regulatory scrutiny. Recent federal court decisions and public statements by senior officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) strongly suggest that many prediction market event contracts will be treated as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act (the “Act”).

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